10 Midwest Cities are “Blooming,” not Rusting
That is the analysis from a recent report from the Manhattan Institute, a leading New York based free market think tank that focuses on economic growth, education, energy and environment, health care, legal reform, public sector, race, and urban policy.
MI identifies 10 cities, almost all in the Midwest that are succeeding as economic centers of their state or region and are more frequently appealing to National and International audiences. While there are larger cities experiencing major booms, and cities scattered across the rust belt and elsewhere experiencing stagnation – these 10 “blooming” cities often fly below the radar, including out of state “coastal” real estate investors.
These 10 cities perform above average compared to other American cities in terms of population growth, job growth, GDP per capita, and college attainment.
The 10 Cities that made the list are:
- Cincinnati, Ohio
- Columbus, Ohio
- Des Moines, Iowa
- Fargo, North Dakota
- Grand Rapids, Michigan
- Indianapolis, Indiana
- Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas
- Lexington, Kentucky
- Madison, Wisconsin
- Minneapolis–St. Paul, Minnesota
FIGURE 1.
Population Growth, 2019–18
| Metro Area | 2010 | 2018 | Total Change | Percentage Change |
| Fargo, ND-MN | 209,350 | 245,471 | 36,121 | 17.3% |
| Des Moines–West Des Moines, IA | 571,967 | 655,409 | 83,442 | 14.6% |
| Columbus, OH | 1,906,365 | 2,106,541 | 200,176 | 10.5% |
| Lexington-Fayette, KY | 473,306 | 516,697 | 43,391 | 9.2% |
| Madison, WI | 606,578 | 660,422 | 53,844 | 8.9% |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 1,892,470 | 2,048,703 | 156,233 | 8.3% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 3,355,196 | 3,629,190 | 273,994 | 8.2% |
| Grand Rapids–Wyoming, MI | 989,416 | 1,069,405 | 79,989 | 8.1% |
| Kansas City, MO-KS | 2,013,412 | 2,143,651 | 130,239 | 6.5% |
| United States | 309,326,085 | 327,167,434 | 17,841,349 | 5.8% |
| Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 2,117,729 | 2,190,209 | 72,480 | 3.4% |
Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP), Vintage 2018; the 2010 number is the midyear estimate.
FIGURE 2.
Job Growth, 2010–18 (in thousands)
| Metro Area | 2010 | 2018 | Total Change | Percentage Change |
| Grand Rapids–Wyoming, MI | 454.2 | 564.5 | 110.3 | 24.3% |
| Columbus, OH | 920.3 | 1099.5 | 179.2 | 19.5% |
| Fargo, ND-MN | 120.2 | 142 | 21.8 | 18.1% |
| Des Moines–West Des Moines, IA | 315.8 | 370.8 | 55 | 17.4% |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 912.3 | 1,070.8 | 158.5 | 17.4% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 1,749.7 | 2,011.1 | 261.4 | 14.9% |
| United States | 130,362 | 149,074 | 18,712 | 14.4% |
| Lexington-Fayette, KY | 242.4 | 276.2 | 33.8 | 13.9% |
| Kansas City, MO-KS | 965 | 1,096.5 | 131.5 | 13.6% |
| Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 981.6 | 1,108.4 | 126.8 | 12.9% |
| Madison, WI | 359.4 | 403.5 | 44.1 | 12.3% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, State and Area Employment data
All of these cities are located in the Midwest and Great Plains states, except for Lexington, KY which is technically in the South, however the demographic trends of Kentucky are more similar to the Midwest than the South, according to MI.
What many of these cities have in common is that they are solidifying their role as regional hubs as the mega trend of urbanization continues. All of these cities are primarily benefiting from in state migration as people leave rural counties seeking opportunities and amenities that cities can offer.
Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2018; the 2010 number is the midyear estimate.
FIGURE 9.
States with Shrinking County Populations: 2010–18
| State | Total Counties | Shrinking Counties | Share of Shrinking Counties |
| Illinois | 102 | 93 | 91.2% |
| Kansas | 105 | 89 | 84.8% |
| Iowa | 99 | 71 | 71.7% |
| Ohio | 88 | 59 | 67.0% |
| Missouri | 115 | 75 | 65.2% |
| Michigan | 83 | 53 | 63.9% |
| Indiana | 92 | 57 | 62.0% |
| Kentucky | 120 | 63 | 52.5% |
| North Dakota | 53 | 27 | 50.9% |
| Minnesota | 87 | 44 | 50.6% |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 35 | 48.6% |
Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2018; the 2010 number is the midyear estimate.
Check out MI’s executive summary and to go deeper download the full report.
